My colleague, Tom Abrahams, is in Austin covering tonight's debate. Go to his blog for all the fun Austin stuff. Both of us are posting the latest ABC/Washington Post poll relating to the Texas and Ohio Primaries. Enjoy!
Obama Leads on Electability in Close Texas and Ohio Races
Trailing on electability, Hillary Clinton is running in a dead heat with Barack Obama in the Texas Democratic primary and holds a single digit-lead in Ohio, lifted there by lunch-bucket voters and party regulars.
Both March 4 primaries have been described as critical to Clinton, who’s lost 10 contests straight, including Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary. Differing demographic and political profiles in Texas and Ohio change pieces of the puzzle – but both contests look close, with more than enough moveable voters to tip the balance either way.
With about two weeks until the primary, this ABC News/Washington Post poll finds a 48-47 percent Clinton-Obama race among likely voters in Texas, 50-43 percent in Ohio. A quarter in Texas, and a third in Ohio, could change their minds or are undecided.
In Texas, Clinton’s being kept competitive by support from Hispanics; she needs them to
turn out in more-than-usual numbers, as they did in California, which she won Feb. 5. In Ohio she’s benefiting from a greater number of Democratic Party regulars than in Texas, fewer college-educated or higher-income voters, and support from union households.
In both states, senior citizens are crucial to Clinton’s side; independents and younger voters, to Obama’s. And he’s taken a lead over Clinton on electability, a point he may try to drive home, along with his mantle of “change,” in the days ahead.
ELECTABILITY – Obama beats Clinton in the perception that he’s got the best chance of winning in November by 47-36 percent in Texas and 48-37 percent in Ohio. He trounced Clinton as more electable in Wisconsin; he’s also made broad strides on electability in national ABC/Post polling, moving up from a 43-point deficit in mid-December to just 5 points earlier this month.
Obama’s lead on electability peaks among college graduates, a key group for him; nearly six in 10 of them say he has the best chance to win in November. Even women, less-educated voters and mainline Democrats – Clinton groups – roughly divide between her and Obama on who’s most electable. Indeed among seniors, her best group, well under half say Clinton’s got the best chance in November.
For her part, Clinton continues to prevail as the strongest leader, by 53-36 percent in Ohio and 51-40 percent in Texas. That edge extends to some issues; she’s ahead in both states in trust to handle the economy as well as health care, her signature issue. Clinton has a slight edge in Ohio in trust to handle the Iraq war; in Texas they’re even on it.
Voters in both states split about evenly on the key dynamic of the race, a “new direction and new ideas” vs. strength and experience; that mirrors the last national poll. It cuts overwhelmingly to vote: Eight in 10 voters who place more importance on “strength and experience” favor Clinton; about as many “new direction” voters go to Obama.
Obama is slightly stronger among “new direction” voters in Texas (80 percent support him) than in Ohio (75 percent) – part of the reason he’s a bit behind there.
GROUPS – Clinton does especially well among women, and particularly among white women, one of her core support groups, in Ohio; Obama makes more inroads among white women in Texas (39 percent support), though not up to his unusual 47 percent support from white women in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday.
Hispanics are key in Texas; they favor Clinton by 59-36 percent, about the same as the average in exit polls across all primaries to date (61-35 percent). By contrast, it’s a much closer 50-46 percent contest among whites in Texas, while African-Americans there are favoring Obama by a 4-1 margin, 76-18 percent. That, too, resembles the outcome in all primaries to date (79-17 percent for Obama among blacks), but it’s lower than some of his high-water marks, including his 91 percent support from blacks in Wisconsin.
Obama continues to do better with college graduates (who are less numerous among likely voters in Ohio than in Texas), with higher-income voters (also less numerous in Ohio); and with younger voters, particularly in Texas, albeit not at the level he achieved in Wisconsin. He leads by 59-39 percent among those under age 40 in Texas; Clinton comes back with 60-25 percent support among seniors there. Seniors also are her best age group by far in Ohio, 57-33 percent.
Eleven percent of seniors in Texas are undecided, more than in any other group. But among likely voters who have a preference, it’s the younger people in Texas who are most apt to say they may change their minds – 29 percent of under 40s. (And about as many in Ohio.)
The age gap shows up other ways. Texas seniors are much more apt to say they’d be “very satisfied” with Clinton than with Obama as the nominee; young people are more likely to be very satisfied with Obama. There are similar divisions by race. (In Ohio there’s less of a gap by age, but a somewhat bigger one by race.)
A quarter of likely voters in Ohio are from union households; they back Clinton by 53-37 percent, vs. a narrower 49-45 percent division among those from non-union households. Clinton lost union households voters to Obama in Wisconsin, though across all primaries to date she’s won them by 50-43 percent. There are very few union voters in Texas.
PARTY TIME – Political allegiance also counts for much. Clinton leads among party regulars in Ohio (55-39 percent) and Texas (53-42 percent) alike; Obama owes his competitiveness to independents who intend to vote in these open primaries. He leads among independents by 53-39 percent in Ohio and 53-40 percent in Texas.
About a week ago, I ran into Chron's editorial cartoonist Nick Anderson. His political blog is much funnier than mine, sometimes it's hard to find something to laugh about during a four hour Houston City Council meeting. Anyway, I convinced him to sketch a charicature of me, with the promise that I would post it on the political blog... well, I couldn't find it for a few days. And for anyone who's ever seen my desk at work, you'd understand why. I finally dug it up, and here it is! Oh, and I also did a sketch of Nick, which he actually posted on his blog a few days ago. My apologies for being slow.
